Calculation Model of Long-Term Economic Growth of Russia on the Basis of the Solow Model

Abstract

The paper presents a simulation-dynamic model for calculating long-term economic growth based on the neoclassical model of R. Solow. The model is developed on the basis of the system dynamics method by AnyLogic tools. In the constructed model, calculations were carried out for two variants of the long-term development of the Russian economy, without and with regard to scientific and technical progress. The model for calculating long-term economic growth was used as a tool for researching which development option is more profitable. The structure of the interface for managing models for calculating long-term economic growth according to the Solow model is presented. The diagram of  flows and calculation levels for long-term economic growth is graphically depicted. The software control panel for a long-term economic growth calculation model is also presented. The results of calculation of long-term economic growth without taking into account scientific and technological progress are shown graphically and presented in figures. As a result of experiments with options, it was found that the option that takes the technical progress into account is preferred. The study allows us to conclude that the developed simulation-dynamic model is quite universal and on its basis it is possible to conduct a variety of studies relating to different levels of various aspects of the long-term development of economic systems.