The Consumption effect on the Birth Rate Growth and the Mortality Reductionin Spatiotemporal Differentiation of the Russian Federation Regions

Abstract

The social and economic development sustainability depends on the numerical reproduction of population. Here, an important factor is the populationwelfare, the income received or the level of consumption. The possibility of a birth rate increase and a mortality decrease in the regions of the Russian Federation depending on the consumption variation is being studiedin this article. The information base of the research contains official statistical data on the indicators of birth rate, mortality and per capita consumption of the population in the Russian Federation’s regions. Numerical analysis and modeling of birth rate and mortality dependence on consumption were carried out according to the data reflected in the federal statistical accounting system for the period of 2011-2021 for 85 regions of the Russian Federation. The article considers techniques, algorithms and methods of mathematical and statistical modeling.The calculations of birth rate and mortality dependence on the per capita consumption factor made it possible to distinguish three main clusters among the regions of the Russian Federation.The first cluster with a specific monthly consumption of 13-46 thousand rubles contains 75 regions. The second cluster consists of regions with a specific monthly consumption of 13 thousand rubles and less. It includes Altai, Dagestan, Ingushetia, the Kabardino-Balkarian Republic, Kalmykia, the Karachay-Cherkess Republic, Mordovia, Tyva, the Chechen Republic. The third cluster includes the city of Moscow with the highest specific consumption in the Russian Federation (over 51 thousand rubles per month). Consumption values are calculated at comparable 2021 prices.The study revealed that for areas with average consumer spending, a 2-fold increase in consumption will increase the birth rate by 16.3% and reduce mortality by 15.9%.The obtained functions of a possible increase in the birth rate and reduction of mortality of the population can be used for demographic forecasts, as well as socio-economic development strategies