Estimating the Risk Factors of the State Defense Orders Implementation at the Concern Structure

Abstract

The top level of the industrial concern management monitors and controls enterprises production activities for a complete and timely defense order execution. Also they redistribute the various, integrated resources. The control of the contracts economic effectiveness is not enough. The features of the state defense order execution production and scientific-technical efficiency control is the difference in the projects, the set of indicators, and the implementation risks assessing complexity. It is necessary to introduce an intermediate control of industrial, scientific and technical efficiency at the stages of contract execution. This control is exercised by the relevant services at the corporate and the enterprise levels, under the authority granted to them. There is a fairly large amount of collected information by indicators that complement each other, but require coordination between them. This information is redundant and difficult to analyze at the top level of management. Risk assessments are based on multi-criteria analysis and are fuzzy in nature due to the external environment and the production organizing conditions instability and variability. The risk factors expert assessments method is proposed to reduce uncertainty, increase the reliability, and for information generalized form presentation. The groups of risk factors are proposed, for which an expert assessment is carried out. It is necessary to coordinate and regulate the list of analyzed indicators, reporting forms, criteria, calculation methodology, and information provision frequency in the corporation. It is advisable to use the fuzzy logic apparatus to assess the reliability of information and the generalized risk factors determinate.