Assessment of Influence of the Interest Channel of Monetary Policy of the Bank of Russia on Cash Flows of Enterprises in the Non-Financial Sector of Economy

Abstract

The paper considers the influence of the percentage channel of the transmission mechanism on the activities of non-financial organizations in Russia. To assess the activities of organizations the cash flows for three types of activities were considered: production, investment and financial. The analysis revealed that the dynamics of cash flows is influenced not only by the key rate, but also by other links in the percentage channel. Proceeding from this, a list of the most important factors explaining the dynamics of cash flow factors has been formed: - the lending rate of commercial banks; - the rate on deposits; - volumes of loans to organizations; - the volume of deposits of organizations in banks. Since the links of the percentage channel can exert their influence with some delay in the work, the correlation coefficients based on the lagged values of the factors are considered. When forming the list of explanatory variables, factors (including lagged ones) that have the greatest connection with the dependent variable were selected. As a dependent variable, the net values of cash flows are selected. Econometric models based on which it is possible to assess the influence of the interest channel of the monetary policy of the Bank of Russia on the cash flows of the non-financial sector of the economy are presented. All models are significant with a significance level not exceeding 1%. The results of the research can be an analytical basis for building models using enterprise monitoring data on a regular basis.