Винеровская модель прогнозирования ресурса светодиодных источников света по деградации нормируемого показателя качества при ускоренных испытаниях

V P Kuzmenko

doi:10.22213/2413-1172-2026-3-22-32

Authors

V. P. Kuzmenko Saint Petersburg State University of Aerospace Instrumentation

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.22213/2413-1172-2026-3-22-32

Keywords:

LED light source, service life prediction, accelerated testing data, quality control index

Abstract

This paper presents a Wiener model for predicting the lifetime of LED light sources based on the degradation of a specified quality parameter during accelerated testing. The model is based on a nonlinear multistage Wiener process with a random drift coefficient, taking into account the combined effects of temperature, relative humidity, and forward current. The model parameters were determined using the maximum likelihood method, and the switching points of the stages of trend nonlinearity were determined by minimizing the Bayesian Schwarz information criterion. The computational implementation and validation of the model were performed using data from multi-stress accelerated tests under five different modes of temperature, humidity, and bias current exposure. It is shown that the values of the degradation trend nonlinearity index ranged from 0.67 to 0.93 in the first stage, 1.23 to 1.35 in the second, and 0.87 to 1.05 in the third. The model also compares linear and nonlinear degradation trends; for the nonlinear variant, the mean absolute prediction error did not exceed 1.9 ⋅ 10-2, whereas for the linear variant it reached 4.0 ⋅ 10-2. The results obtained confirm the applicability of the model for predicting the lifetime of LED light sources based on a normalized quality index using data from accelerated tests.

Author Biography

V. P. Kuzmenko, Saint Petersburg State University of Aerospace Instrumentation

PhD in Engineering, Associate Professor

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