STUDY OF THE INFLUENCE OF DEMOGRAPHIC, SOCIO-ECONOMIC, MEDICAL-BIOLOGICAL, ENVIRONMENTAL, ETHNIC FACTORS ON FERTILITY IN THE UDMURT REPUBLIC

Abstract

The article is devoted to the research of the influence of various factors on fertility. Demographic, socio-economic, medical and biological indicators, as well as a number of environmental and ethnic indicators are considered as factors. Numerical calculations were carried out for the socio-economic system of the Udmurt Republic for the period 2000-2022. According to the official statistical information? presented in the 27×23 data set, a correlation and regression analysis of fertility was performed. The correlation analysis was revealed that the fertility rate is most strongly influenced by the number of registered marriages, the number of children born second in the family and the number of people employed in the economy. For them, there is a close direct correlation with a correlation coefficient above 0.7. An inverse correlation was found between the birth rate and the number of children born with disabilities. Weak correlation dependence with an absolute correlation coefficient of less than 0.2 was found between fertility and such factors as the per capita income of the population, maternity capital, ethnicity, etc. Step-by-step regression analysis was shown that currently the birth rate is mainly formed due to the births of second children in the family. This is due to the imbalance between the number of women in the range of younger and older ages in the field of fertility. The second most influential factor was the number of women of fertile age. The third group of factors affecting fertility to a lesser extent includes the number of registered marriages, the number of large families (a direct relationship was revealed). An inverse relationship was found between the fertility rate and the number of people employed in the economy, as well as between the fertility rate and the number of children with disabilities born.