THE INFLUENCE OF MACROECONOMIC FACTORS ON OVERDUE DEBT OF SMALL AND MEDIUM-SIZED BUSINESSES IN MODERN ECONOMIC CONDITIONS

Abstract

The article discusses the definition of credit risk, classification into external and internal. Risks are divided into several main types, depending on the specifics and market. The factors that influence credit risk and the main methods for assessing it used by credit institutions are listed. Current economic constraints and factors are listed. It is noted that at the moment, with an increase in the volume of loan debt of small and medium-sized businesses, the share of overdue debt is decreasing; the Bank of Russia has identified the reasons. The preferential lending programs that were in effect in May 2024 are considered. The problems that credit organizations face when conducting financial analysis are given. External reasons that influence the efficiency of small businesses in Russia are identified.Data has been collected that is publicly available and, in the author’s opinion, has an impact on credit risk. Credit risk is assessed as the ratio of overdue debt to outstanding debt. Based on the collected information, a model was built, which involves use by a credit institution to assess credit risk. The data is formed into a table, loaded into the Gretl software product and the result is displayed. A table containing a matrix of pairwise correlations of variables has been constructed. A conclusion was also drawn about the debt of SMEs in modern economic conditions and it was noted that the reduction in overdue debt is a temporary phenomenon, which is influenced by current economic restrictions, and that the cumulative effect of high interest rates can lead to default by the borrower. Further work will be aimed at studying changes in credit risk in modern economic conditions.