Modeling of labor market development for older people

Abstract

This article describes the labor market based on the characteristics of the quantity and quality of the available labor force and the magnitude of its shortage, and also provides a forecast of these indicators. The demographic characteristics of older people present in the labor market are examined. The indicators are calculated taking into account the official retirement age and the actual age of leaving the labor market. Mathematical modeling of the number of people who have reached the official retirement age, as well as the number of people from this age group remaining in the labor market, is conducted based on the equation for the dynamics of the age structure. The analysis and forecast are also conducted for a division into four qualification groups, from the highest to the "no qualifications" group. The dynamics of the expenses of the Pension Fund of the Russian Federation for the ten-year period 2013-2023 are analyzed. A numerical assessment of some of the effects of the pension reform is conducted. Two model situations are considered: when all people who have reached the official retirement age continue to work, and when they leave the labor market. It is found that changes in the official retirement age have virtually no impact on the expenses of the Pension Fund. It is economically beneficial to retain valuable labor resources in the labor market. The study found that older adults can be a resource for reducing the labor shortage. Their unique value lies in their intellectual and professional capital. The older generation can make the greatest contribution as holders of exclusive knowledge, mentors, and highly qualified specialists capable of ensuring continuity and high-quality development of human capital in critical sectors. The strategy for integrating older adults into the labor market must be comprehensive and not limited to changing the age threshold.