Econometric assessment of the effectiveness of investments in air pollution control: trend of the Russian Federation

Abstract

This article provides an econometric assessment of the effectiveness of investments in atmospheric air protection at the macrolevel of the Russian Federation and the mesolevel of the Vologda region. The topic of this article is particularly relevant in the context of sustainable development of the domestic economy and public administration practices. A paired linear regression analysis was performed to analyze the relationship between emissions from stationary sources and the volume of real investment in fixed capital for the period 2000-2024. The model results demonstrate a statistically significant but weak inverse relationship (R2 = 0,272), indicating a low explanatory power of total investment as a driver of long-term emission reduction. The impact of the federal Clean Air project on environmental indicators in Cherepovets, a key industrial center of the region, is examined. It is shown that, despite volatile dynamics of targeted investments, a sustainable reduction in total emissions of 19.1% was achieved in the region from 2020-2024, and by 24.7% in Cherepovets. The study concludes that the effectiveness of investments varies fundamentally at different levels of governance: while at the macro level their impact is mitigated by structural and market factors, at the meso level their inclusion in targeted programmatic activities (using the “Сhistyy vozdukh” project as an example) provides a significant environmental impact. It is emphasized that to achieve national air protection goals, priority should shift from the practice of distributing general investments to the development of targeted project programs focused on specific industrial centers with the highest loads.