Retail traffic in Russian regions: analysis of the impact of digitalization, revenue, and tourist flows

Abstract

This article examines the relationship between key retail development factors-digitalization, household income, and tourist flows-at the regional level in the Russian Federation. The aim of the study is to identify and evaluate the nature of this interaction, as well as to test the hypothesis of a synergistic effect from their combined influence on retail turnover. The methodological basis of the study is an empirical analysis of statistical data for 82 constituent entities of the Russian Federation for 2024. Rosstat statistics were used to generate the following indicators: retail turnover per capita, average per capita income, the share of households with internet access, and the intensity of tourist flow. To classify regions, a threshold classification method using median values was applied, which made it possible to identify eight groups differing in the combination of development levels of the three analyzed factors. The relevance of the study is determined by the need to overcome the increasing regional differentiation in the retail trade against the backdrop of digital transformation and the growth of domestic tourism. The key result is the proof of the synergistic effect hypothesis. It was established that the highest trade turnover figures, exceeding the Russian average, are typical for regions with high incomes, developed digital infrastructure, and active tourism. An analysis of the contribution of these factors showed that their combined effect provides additional turnover growth, exceeding the simple sum of their individual effects. The hierarchical significance of the factors was also confirmed: household income is a necessary baseline, digitalization is a key growth multiplier, and tourism is an important, but insufficient, additional source of demand to compensate for low solvency. The study's results form the basis for differentiated regional policy and strategic planning aimed at overcoming imbalances through comprehensive stimulation of the identified growth factors.