MODELING CARBON DIOXIDE CO2 EMISSIONS FROM THE FOSSIL FUELS COMBUSTION OF OIL AND GAS IN CORRELATION TO THE MACROECONOMIC AND INDUSTRY INDICATORS

Abstract

The article discusses the problem of achieving the goals of the Russian Federation to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The purpose of thе study is to establish quantitative correlations of the CO2 emissions from the fossil fuels oil and gas combustion with the industry indicators of the Energy sector, especially the Oil&Gas, as well as with Russian macroeconomic indicators. An econometric model has been developed in the form of a hierarchical system of interconnected multiple linear regression equations.The created model makes it possible to evaluate the correlations of the key indicator “Share of CO2 emissions from the fossil fuels oil and gas combustion in total greenhouse gas emissions of the Russian Federation” with several energy and macroeconomics indicators. CO2 emissions the fossil fuels oil and gas combustion in the Russia are analyzed in correlation with the oil and gas production, the primary energy consumption and its structure by energy sources. Cumulative greenhouse gas emissions are considered depending on the factor of electricity production by type of generation, and on the factor of federal budget revenues and budget structure. The forecast of key indicator values through 2030 was conducted using the developed model. A general upward trend in the change of the key indicator has been established, with a forecast increase in the share of emissions from the fossil fuels oil and gas combustion. A conclusion was made about the colossal difficulties in achieving the indicators of Russia's climate doctrine. Mathematical modeling of forecasting to the inertial scenario has made it possible to prove that the drive to reduce greenhouse gas emissions has a negative impact on Russia's macroeconomics. To overcome this, it is necessary to a restructurе the economy by reducing the Oil&Gas sector, implement a technological shift in industrial development, and change the sources of revenue for the Federal budget.